Gold's safe haven cools down, gains hit resistanceSpot gold showed a clear downward trend during the trading session on Tuesday, and finally closed at $3,317.06/ounce, a single-day drop of 0.8%. The decline was mainly affected by two fundamental factors: first, the Trump administration unexpectedly softened its stance on auto tariffs, significantly weakening the market's risk aversion demand; second, the US dollar index took the opportunity to rebound, suppressing gold denominated in US dollars. It is worth noting that the market will usher in the release of two key economic data, the US GDP in the first quarter and the core PCE price index in March, on this trading day. These data are likely to redefine the market's expectations for the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
Technical analysis:
From the daily level, the gold price has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and the closing price has effectively fallen below the 5-day moving average support. The MACD indicator shows that the momentum is weakening, the red energy column continues to shrink, and the fast and slow lines tend to flatten. The current price is running in the range of 3324-3308, and the previous high of 3343 above constitutes an important resistance, while the psychological level of 3300 below and the 50-day moving average position of 3285 form key support.
The hourly chart shows more operational technical features: the price forms an obvious descending triangle consolidation pattern in the range of 3330-3300. The moving average system shows that the short-term trend is weak, the 5/10 hour moving average forms a dead cross near 3320, and the 20 hour moving average is pressed down to 3325 to form a dynamic resistance. The RSI indicator remains in the neutral area of 40-55, indicating that the market has not yet entered an oversold state. It is particularly noteworthy that the gold price has failed to test the 3330 resistance twice, and the pressure effect of this position deserves special attention.
Trading strategy recommendations:
Under the current technical pattern, it is recommended to adopt the idea of shorting on rallies. The ideal entry range for short orders is 3320-3325, and the stop loss should be set above 3330. The downside target first looks at the 3300 integer mark. If it breaks through effectively, it may further explore the 3285 support level. Special attention should be paid to the price performance during the European session: if the European session continues to be weak, short positions can be considered during the US session; if there is a strong rebound in the European session, it may turn into a volatile pattern, and the trading strategy needs to be adjusted at that time.
For potential long opportunities, it is recommended to remain cautious. Only when the price effectively breaks through the 3330 resistance and stabilizes, the strategy of stepping back to long positions can be considered, with the stop loss set below 3320 and the target looking at around 3343.
Risk warning:
This trading day needs to focus on the US GDP and PCE data released in the evening. If the GDP data is lower than the expected lower limit of 2.3%, it may re-stimulate safe-haven buying; and if the core PCE year-on-year growth rate exceeds 2.9%, it may strengthen the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance. In addition, the support strength of the 3300 integer mark needs special attention, and any breakthrough may trigger subsequent trend market conditions.
Summary:
Combining technical and fundamental analysis, gold is weak in the short term, and it is recommended to take shorting on rallies as the main operation direction. However, we need to pay close attention to the possible fluctuations caused by important economic data and the defense of the key support level of 3300. Traders should strictly control risks, and it is recommended that the risk of a single transaction be controlled within 1-2% of the account funds.
