Gold Holds Ground After Breakout – Will the Rally Continue?Hello everyone! I hope you enjoy my very first analysis published on TradingView Indonesia!
After a convincing breakout from the descending channel, gold is now firmly holding its ground around the $3,280 support zone – considered a strategic anchor for the ongoing short-term bullish trend. Notably, an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is clearly forming on the H4 chart, reinforcing expectations that $3,390 could be the next key level the market aims to conquer.
On the news front, gold is receiving support from both a weakening U.S. dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields. Specifically, the latest U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.7 – below expectations – indicating a slowdown in industrial activity. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dipped to 4.15%, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safer store of value during this volatile period.
All eyes are now on the upcoming U.S. labor market report at the end of the week, along with any signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut roadmap for Q3. If upcoming data continues to support a monetary easing narrative, gold may not only break through $3,390 but also head toward the next target at $3,420.
My personal strategy is to prioritize a “Buy on Dip” approach around the $3,280 level, especially if price action confirms a clear rebound from this support zone.
Are you ready for the next bullish wave?
Metals
Gold Is Coiling for a Breakout – Will NFP Be the Trigger?Hello traders!
I hope you're as excited as I am for my second consecutive day of gold analysis here on TradingView Indonesia!
Gold (XAUUSD) is quietly consolidating in the 3,330 – 3,360 USD zone, gearing up for a potential big move as all eyes turn to tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Yesterday’s disappointing ADP data – which showed a decline in private-sector jobs for the first time in two years – has heightened expectations that the Fed may soon cut interest rates. This has weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, while boosting gold due to its appeal as a non-yielding safe haven.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of a five-wave Elliott decline and exited its long-term downtrend channel. A bullish structure is clearly taking shape, marked by higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently in a phase of tight consolidation — much like a coiled spring waiting for the right trigger to launch.
If the resistance at 3,358 USD is broken with strong buying pressure, gold could quickly accelerate toward 3,390 and even 3,407 USD, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension. On the flip side, the dynamic support zone between 3,327 and 3,318 USD is likely to act as a buffer in the event of a short-term pullback.
Gold is holding its breath ahead of the U.S. jobs data — and when the market speaks, the opportunity will belong to those who are ready.
Are you ready?
Gold Is About to Snap – Will the Breakout Blast Through $3,700?By analyzing the gold chart on the D1 timeframe, we can observe that XAUUSD is moving within an ascending symmetrical triangle pattern, with five clearly defined corrective waves that appear to be nearing completion. This structure indicates that the market is currently in a phase of price compression, waiting for a breakout. Notably, the resistance zone around $3,350 is acting as a critical barrier for a potential breakout, while support remains steady around $3,280. The horizontal volume profile shows a strong concentration of activity near the current price range, further reinforcing the expectation that if gold breaks above the upper boundary of the triangle, the next target could range between $3,700 and $3,800 — which corresponds to the height of the pattern. In my view, this presents a promising setup for a trend-following strategy, with an ideal entry point after a confirmed breakout signal on the D1 chart.
EURUSD - Sideways Action Sparks Reversal SpeculationHello traders, what are your expectations for EUR/USD?
Today, EUR/USD continues to move sideways around the 1.1800 mark during Thursday’s European session. The pair is showing signs of caution as the US Dollar gains ground amid optimism over a US–Vietnam trade deal.
From a technical perspective, the bullish trend still dominates as the price remains within an upward channel. However, a short-term pullback could be on the horizon, especially with buying momentum fading as EUR/USD approaches the upper boundary of the channel.
What do you think—could a reversal be forming from this zone?
Drop your thoughts in the comments!
Happy trading, everyone!
XAUUSD 03/07: GOLD IN THE DRIVER'S SEATXAUUSD 03/07: GOLD IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT – WILL IT BREAKOUT OR PULLBACK BEFORE KEY EVENTS?
Gold is on a solid upward trajectory, as expected from earlier predictions this week. After a negative ADP Non-Farm Payroll report yesterday, the USD weakened, providing the fuel for gold to soar. During the US session, gold surged from the 333x level to 336x.
🔑 Key Catalysts to Watch:
1. Political Factors:
Trump's announcement that the Republicans in the House have united to push through the "Super Bill" is a significant factor that could propel gold even further in the near future. The political climate is setting the stage for gold's potential rally.
2. Macro Overview:
Federal Reserve and Rate Cuts: The market is eyeing the Fed closely, with high expectations for two interest rate cuts this year. This could put continued pressure on the USD and further support gold. With a 90% chance of a rate cut by the end of Q3, the path is clear for gold to target new highs.
US Economic Data: Disappointing ADP data, reporting a loss of -33k jobs, continues to point to a weakening labor market, strengthening the case for gold as a safe-haven asset.
🌍 Market Conditions and Trade Setup:
The market remains on edge with these political and economic factors at play. The market will also be watching the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data closely. With the ADP report showing poor results, the market could experience some turbulence ahead of the NFP release, and with a long weekend ahead due to the bank holiday, traders should approach this market with caution.
📉 Technical Outlook – The Road Ahead for Gold:
Gold has been trending upward and maintaining a bullish outlook. However, a minor pullback is expected.
Resistance: 3358 – 3365 – 3374 – 3380 – 3390
Support: 3343 – 3335 – 3325 – 3316 – 3304
📊 Trading Plan – Key Levels to Watch:
Buy Scalp:
Entry: 3335 – 3333
SL: 3329
TP: 3340 → 3345 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370
Buy Zone:
Entry: 3316 – 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 → 3324 → 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360
Sell Scalp:
Entry: 3374 – 3376
SL: 3380
TP: 3370 → 3366 → 3360 → 3355 → 3350
Sell Zone:
Entry: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3366 → 3360
⚠️ Key Focus for Traders:
Upcoming Data: The NFP release will be crucial, as disappointing job numbers could drive gold even higher.
Market Volatility: With the long weekend ahead and market reactions to key news, be prepared for possible volatility.
Trade with Caution: Stick to your TP/SL strategy, manage risk, and only enter trades when clear setups appear.
📈 Conclusion:
Gold is showing strong potential for further gains, but traders should be prepared for some pullbacks as the market reacts to upcoming economic and political news. The trend remains bullish, but it’s crucial to remain cautious and follow the technical levels closely to optimize entry points. Stay alert for key developments in the USD, NFP, and Fed rate-cut expectations, and let the market guide you.
Gold at Key Level Before NFP – Big Move Loading for XAUUSD?📉 Macro-Fundamental Insight
Gold continues to show bullish strength, powered by key global developments:
ADP Job Data Misses Expectations: The latest ADP release reported a -33K decline, sharply below forecast, triggering weakness in the US Dollar and lifting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook: Traders now expect a 90% chance of a rate cut by Q3, supporting gold due to lower yields and weakening USD sentiment.
Trump’s “Super Bill” Momentum: Political unity among US Republicans around fiscal expansion raises concerns over long-term US debt—another factor increasing gold’s appeal globally.
🇮🇳 For Indian traders, these global macro shifts present opportunities to align with Smart Money positions and plan structured trades around high-impact events like NFP.
🧠 Smart Money Technical Breakdown (H1)
Price is currently testing a Premium Fair Value Gap (FVG), right after confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS).
The region 3,375 – 3,376 is a mid-risk Sell Zone, likely to trigger a short-term rejection.
Structure suggests a liquidity sweep to the downside before any sustained bullish continuation.
📊 Trading Strategy – Key SMC Zones to Monitor
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,334 – 3,333
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,329
✅ Targets: 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔵 BUY ZONE (Low Risk): 3,317 – 3,316
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,311
✅ Targets: 3,320 → 3,325 → 3,330 → 3,336 → 3,345 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔴 SELL SCALP ZONE: 3,375 – 3,376
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,380
✔️ Targets: 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360 → 3,355 → 3,350
🔴 SELL ZONE (High Probability): 3,388 – 3,390
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,394
✔️ Targets: 3,384 → 3,380 → 3,376 → 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360
📌 Final Notes for Indian Traders:
With NFP and US bank holidays ahead, expect irregular volatility and potential liquidity traps.
All entries follow Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, ideal for short-term and positional scalping strategies.
Watch for key reactions at the premium zones—this is where institutions tend to act.
XAUUSD Long Idea – Inverse Head & Shoulders ReversalTechnical Overview:
I’m observing a clean Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the 4-hour chart:
✅ Left Shoulder: Formed around 3,270
✅ Head: Rejection and reversal near 3,190
✅ Right Shoulder: Higher low around 3,300
✅ Neckline: Approx. 3,350 zone
Price has broken above the neckline area and is currently retesting it as support, which strengthens the bullish case.
Trade Plan:
🔹 Entry: Current zone near 3,340–3,350 retest
🔹 Targets:
🎯 TP1: ~3,400 (recent structural high)
🎯 TP2: ~3,450–3,460 (major resistance block)
🔹 Stop Loss:
Below the right shoulder area at ~3,290 for risk containment
Rationale:
1. Inverse Head & Shoulders is a classic bullish reversal pattern
2. Break and retest of neckline suggests buyers stepping in
3. Momentum shift confirmed by higher low structure
Potential Path:
I expect price to bounce from the neckline retest and push towards the 3,400 psychological level. If momentum persists, continuation to the 3,450 resistance block is likely.
📊 Risk to Reward Estimate:
Approx. 1:2 to 1:3 depending on target selection
📝 Note:
This analysis is for educational purposes—always manage your risk and validate entries with your own confirmations.
Strong Bullish Momentum or a Short-Term Setback?XAUUSD Analysis – 02/07: Strong Bullish Momentum or a Short-Term Setback?
Gold has made a strong recovery after a brief period of consolidation last month, and it continues to show signs of strong bullish momentum. The price has been fluctuating, yet the overall trend remains positive. Let’s dive into the technical setup for today’s trading session.
📊 Market Overview:
Recent Price Action: After confirming a bullish reversal on the H1 timeframe earlier this week, Gold has surged significantly. Yesterday, it reached 3358, completing wave 3 of an Elliott structure on the M30 chart, followed by a slight correction during the US and Asian sessions.
Short-Term Correction: Wave 4 is currently underway, and there are two potential outcomes for this correction:
It could find support at 3328-3330, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend.
Alternatively, it may dip further to the 330x range before resuming the uptrend.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3328 – 3313 – 3304 – 3294
Resistance: 3344 – 3360 – 3368 – 3388
🧠 Trading Strategy for Today:
Buy Scenario:
Watch for a potential bounce around the 3328-3330 range. If this area holds, we can look for buying opportunities with a target towards 3358 and 3360.
If the price breaks through the 3340 level, consider entering long positions and setting targets around 3350-3360.
Sell Scenario:
Sell Near Resistance: A quick scalping opportunity could arise near the 3388-3390 resistance zone. Tight SL and reasonable TP at 3384-3380 are the targets to aim for.
For a longer-term Sell position, wait for a clearer breakdown below 3370 to target deeper levels like 3360.
🎯 Trading Plan for Today:
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3306 – 3304
SL: 3300
TP: 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350
⚡️ Key Considerations:
The US macroeconomic data release and potential volatility from ADP NonFarm Payrolls today could provide significant movement, so stay alert and monitor the data closely.
In Summary:
Bullish bias remains intact with strong buy opportunities around key support levels like 3328-3330.
For short-term traders, focus on quick scalping within the resistance zones, but don’t forget to follow the trend for the longer-term buy strategy.
💡 Stay cautious with your Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) to manage risk effectively. Happy trading! 🌟
Gold Pulls Back After Breakout – Buy the Dip or Wait and See?Dear Traders,
Let’s dive into today’s latest gold analysis and trading strategy!
Overall, after decisively breaking out of the descending channel, gold quickly gained momentum and surged to the $3,350 per ounce mark – its highest level in several sessions. However, after hovering around this price zone, the precious metal has since given up part of its gains as the U.S. dollar began to fluctuate again. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious, closely monitoring new developments on the trade front ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
If conditions remain favorable, the “buy-the-dip” strategy still holds for gold – as long as the key static support at $3,000 continues to hold. The Fibonacci retracement also shows a pullback near the 0.5 level. The bullish trend could gain further traction if strong buying emerges from this support zone.
What do you think – is gold ready for another breakout?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below!
Gold price recovered break 3340, price increasedPlan XAU day: 02 July 2025
Related Information:!!!
Gold Demand in China Expected to Rise Further
"Gold prices (XAU/USD) fluctuated between modest gains and slight losses during the first half of the European session on Wednesday, remaining below the one-week high reached the previous day. The US Dollar has regained some positive momentum, appearing to break a seven-day losing streak that had brought it to its lowest level since February 2022. This renewed strength in the greenback is acting as a headwind for the precious metal. Additionally, a broadly positive risk sentiment in the market is seen as another factor limiting the upside potential for the safe-haven asset.
personal opinion:!!!
Gold price continues to recover after breaking the 3340 price zone, buying power maintained before ADP-NF news today
Important price zone to consider : !!!
SELL point: 3366 zone
Sustainable trading to beat the market
GOLD 02/07 – WAVE (5) LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IF 3330 SUPPORT HOLDS📊 MACRO FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT:
The market is closely focused on today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment data, projected at 99K compared to the previous 37K. This release is considered a crucial leading indicator ahead of the official Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s remarks regarding the proposed tax reform bill have reignited fears of an expanding US budget deficit, increasing investor appetite for safe-haven assets such as gold.
The combination of weaker USD, fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical undercurrents continues to support gold prices in the near term.
🧠 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – ELLIOTT WAVE + SMC + ICT INSIGHTS:
Gold appears to have completed a clean Wave (4) correction, aligning with the Fibonacci confluence zones between 0.382 – 0.5 – 0.618.
Market structure suggests we are now in the early phase of Wave (5), which aims toward the FE 1.618 extension zone near 3380 – 3413.
The internal structure reflects typical Smart Money flow patterns:
CHoCH → BOS → MSS, in alignment with ICT model, confirming a bullish internal drive.
The move from the recent MSS level suggests accumulation, with price likely to seek external liquidity in higher zones.
🔍 KEY LEVELS & TRADE ZONES:
🔼 BUY ZONE: 3306 – 3304
This zone represents a demand area within Fibonacci retracement structure.
📍 Stop Loss: 3300 (below structural low and SSL)
🎯 Take Profits:
3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340
🔽 SELL ZONE (SCALP): 3388 – 3390
A high-probability reversal zone based on potential liquidity sweep and price exhaustion.
📍 Stop Loss: 3394
🎯 Take Profits:
3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350
📈 PROJECTED SCENARIOS:
✅ Scenario 1 – Preferred (Wave (5) Extension Active):
As long as price holds above 3330 – 3335, we expect a continuation toward the 3380 – 3410 zone.
Consolidation above this level may lead to flag/triangle formation, confirming bullish continuation.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Controlled Pullback:
A pullback into 3310 – 3320 is possible to clear remaining inefficiencies.
If this zone holds, the bullish bias remains intact.
A breakdown below 3300 would invalidate the current Elliott structure and call for reassessment.
🕵️♂️ TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
Asian session is showing tight consolidation, suggesting absorption of selling pressure after the US session retracement.
A breakout above 3345 would be significant, as it confirms renewed bullish momentum and could trigger strong participation ahead of the ADP release.
⚙️ FINAL REMARK – STRUCTURAL SUMMARY:
Gold is likely in the final stage of Wave (4) and potentially entering Wave (5) within a bullish Elliott Wave cycle.
The structure is supported by liquidity zones, Fibonacci levels, and ICT SMC flow logic.
Best approach remains: Buy dips into the demand zone, avoid chasing, and monitor PA around key breakout levels like 3345 and 3380.
Stay patient and let the market unfold its next leg — structure will guide us.
Gold Bulls are back in control?Gold has delivered exactly what we were hoping to see! The new month opening brought impressive strength, and the technical picture has shifted again in favor of the bulls.
Gold successfully broke above critical 3308 weekly pivot level we've been watching.
The bearish HH/LL pattern has been broken this is very good sign for changing the overall trend direction and That descending trendline resistance that was capping rallies has finally been taken out.
Gold is now sitting in a much stronger technical position. All the pieces we needed for a genuine reversal are falling into place. The bulls have reclaimed control as of now.
Support to Hold: 3300-3308 zone
This is now our critical support area. As long as gold holds above this zone, the bullish momentum seems to be in favor of bulls.
Upside Targets:
Weekly R1: 3360 - First major resistance to watch
Weekly R2: 3447 - Next significant target if momentum continues
The technical transformation is clear we've gone from a corrective phase to what looks like a resumption of the bullish trend. The bulls are back , and as long as we maintain support above 3300-3308, those higher targets become very realistic.
Gold Holds Strong Above $3,335 – Is $3,390 the Next Target?Hey traders!
Let’s take a quick look at what’s happening with gold today
Gold continues to hold its impressive bullish momentum, trading firmly above the $3,335 mark. The rally is fueled by a sliding US dollar and declining US Treasury yields, which are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to its lowest level since early 2022, while the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.19%. These conditions give the Federal Reserve more room to consider rate cuts—supporting gold’s upside.
Adding to the bullish case, fresh data shows a recovery in US manufacturing, further boosting demand for gold.
📈 On the technical side, gold is moving just as we anticipated: it’s broken out of the descending channel and is currently forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern completes, we could see the next leg higher pushing toward $3,390.
What do you think — is gold ready for another breakout?
Drop your view below! 💬
The Market Is Heating Up – Gold Breaks Above $3,300!Dear Traders,
A convincing breakout from the downtrend channel has triggered a strong bullish wave in the gold market. As of now, XAUUSD is trading steadily above $3,300 – a key price zone that marks the return of buyers.
Notably, the rally is not just a temporary reaction. The price action on the H2 chart shows consolidation at high levels, indicating that buyers are still in control of the game. And all eyes are now on the upcoming data from the US: the employment and manufacturing reports – “catalysts” that could further fuel the market’s rally.
If the Fed signals monetary easing, gold could head straight for the $3,385 target zone in the short term.
What do you think about this scenario? Are we witnessing the start of a new wave?
Gold Rises as Quarter Ends – Can Bulls Push Toward 3,345?June 30 marks the final trading day of both the month and the quarter, making it a key session for technical traders. On Monday, gold edged higher, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar. The greenback slid against the yen and dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years versus the euro, fueled by market optimism around U.S. trade deals. This helped reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates earlier than previously anticipated—giving gold the boost it needed to break above the 3,300 USD barrier.
From a technical perspective, short-term momentum now favors the bulls after a clear breakout above the descending parallel channel. If this move holds, the next upside target is projected near the 3,345 USD zone, as highlighted on the chart.
However, be careful because this can also be a fake breakout.
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy July 3, 2025: Yesterday's trading session went in line with our prediction when the gold price approached the 332x support area and then bounced back strongly. However, at the beginning of today's Asian session, the price corrected sharply after peaking at 3365.
Fundamental analysis: The number of ADP jobs in the United States recorded a decrease of 33,000 in June, the lowest since March 2023, which shows that the labor market is clearly weakening, raising concerns about the slowdown of the US economy.
Technical analysis: After approaching the 332x support area, the gold price bounced back strongly, currently the gold price is still following the MA 20. We will wait at the support areas to be able to trade, however, today's reports and news can strongly influence, leading to unpredictable fluctuations in the gold price; In addition, we should also be careful before the short profit-taking phase that may occur today or tomorrow.
Important price zones today: 3322 - 3327, 3338 - 3343 and 3375 - 3380.
Today's trading trend: BUY (scalp).
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3337 - 3339
SL 3334
TP 3342 - 3350 - 3360 - 3380.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3322 - 3324
SL 3319
TP 3327 - 3340 - 3360 - 3380.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3378 - 3380
SL 3383
TP 3375 - 3365 - 3355 - 3345 - Open (small vol).
Wish you a safe and profitable trading day.🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Trade Recommendation – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) – Entry #2✅ Trade Recommendation – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) – Entry #2
📅 Date: July 3–4, 2025
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
🎯 Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: 66.30 – 66.40 USD/barrel (short-term support and EMA20 zone)
Stop Loss (SL): 65.60 USD (below MA200 and previous bullish candle base)
Take Profit (TP):
• Target: 68.40 – 68.50 USD
📊 Technical Analysis:
Healthy pullback after a strong bullish breakout — price is currently consolidating around EMA20, potentially forming a new upward leg.
Volume surged during the July 2–3 breakout, indicating strong institutional buying interest.
Price structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
Bollinger Bands: Price touched the upper band and is now retracing to the mid-band — a common continuation pattern.
EMA20 is acting as dynamic support.
🧭 Strategy Notes:
Wait for price to retrace into the 66.30 – 66.40 zone with a confirmation signal (e.g. bullish pin bar or engulfing candle).
Consider scaling in and holding the position toward the resistance area of 68.40 – 68.50.
Cut loss if price breaks below 65.60 and invalidates the current bullish structure.
fl me & ytb, winrate 90%! Thank
Will Gold Break Higher Ahead of US Jobs Data?Hello traders, what’s your take—will gold rise or fall today?
So far, the precious metal remains quiet, hovering around $3,345 without much movement since yesterday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, although the probability is still low, expectations are rising that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this month. That’s a strong supportive factor for gold in the near term.
Technically, the next bullish target is a confirmed daily close above the key resistance level at $3,400.
On the news front, Thursday marks the most important data release of the month for the US—the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, released a day early due to the Independence Day holiday. The market is expecting an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May.
This release could be a gold mover: If the actual number is weaker than expected, it would likely reinforce Fed rate cut expectations—giving gold a bullish push.
EURUSD SHORT - 15M/1HFOREXCOM:EURUSD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!! !
Gold in Accumulation – Is a Breakout Coming Soon?The gold market is entering a notable accumulation phase, with price moving slowly within a narrow range between 3,330 and 3,360 USD, forming a clear sideways structure on the H4 chart. After convincingly breaking out of a long-term downtrend channel, the precious metal now appears to be "gaining momentum" – potentially gearing up for a strong upward move once market sentiment breaks free from uncertainty.
Interestingly, gold has already climbed above both the EMA34 and EMA89 – two moving averages that often act as significant technical resistance. Yet, instead of continuing its rally immediately, the market has entered a state of calm, as if waiting for a big trigger. Unsurprisingly, that trigger could come in the next 24 hours with the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report – one of the most influential indicators shaping expectations around Federal Reserve rate decisions.
This wait-and-see sentiment is clearly reflected in declining trading volume and the persistent sideways price action. It resembles a compressed spring – the longer it’s compressed, the stronger the potential breakout.
If gold breaks above the 3,360 USD level with strong buying momentum, the market could quickly push toward 3,390 to 3,400 USD. On the other hand, if the 3,330 USD support level fails, a pullback toward the 3,300 USD area – supported by the EMAs – could follow.
This is not the time to rush. Be patient, watch price action carefully, and only act when the market sends a clear signal. A breakout accompanied by volume is the most reliable sign to follow the smart money – and potentially ride the next big wave after the Nonfarm release.
Trade Setup – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)✅ Trade Setup – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
📅 Date: July 2–3, 2025
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
🎯 Trade Parameters:
Buy Zone (Entry): 65.00 – 64.90 USD/barrel
Stop Loss (SL): 64.55 USD (below rising trendline and lower Bollinger Band)
Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 66.50 USD
• TP2: 67.00 USD
📊 Technical Analysis Highlights:
Rising trendline from June 24 continues to hold, forming a solid support area around 64.9–65.0.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating potential volatility expansion. Price is consolidating near the mid-band (MA20), often a precursor to bullish breakout.
Volume shows signs of accumulation around the trendline, suggesting buying interest at key support.
Multiple rejections from 64.90 without breakdown reinforces this level as near-term support.
🧭 Strategy Notes:
Enter on price pullback to the 65.00–64.90 zone with confirmation (e.g. bullish pin bar, engulfing pattern, volume spike).
Suggested position management:
• Take 50% profit at 66.50
• Hold the remaining 50% toward 67.00 if momentum is strong.
If price breaks below 64.55 with strong volume, exit the trade to preserve capital.
Good luck Everybody! Fl me here and ytb ! Thanks
XAUUSD 01/07: GOLD'S RELIEF RALLY FROM A MONTHLY LOWXAUUSD 01/07: GOLD'S RELIEF RALLY FROM A MONTHLY LOW – USD WEAKENS, BUT CLEAR MOMENTUM IS STILL MISSING
🌍 Market Overview – USD Weakness & Gold's Rebound Potential
After a significant drop to a one-month low, Gold is beginning to recover slightly, partly due to a weaker USD, improving market sentiment. However, the rally remains cautious and still lacks a strong momentum to push gold decisively higher.
💵 USD Weakness: Can Gold Continue to Rebound?
Recent US economic data has shown a slight decline in consumer spending, which has led to speculations that the Federal Reserve may take a more dovish stance on interest rates in the near future. This has weakened the USD, providing room for Gold to rebound slightly.
That said, there hasn't been a significant catalyst to push Gold into a strong breakout yet.
📉 The Fed is Still the Key Player
The market is closely watching the Fed's next moves. However, there’s a divide on whether interest rates will be cut or maintained. The recent US data isn’t weak enough to warrant a policy change from the Fed, but it’s also not strong enough for the Fed to keep its hawkish stance intact.
This leaves Gold in a limbo, with no clear direction in the near term. Gold is caught between weak expectations of further rate cuts and the ongoing strength of the USD.
🧠 Analysis for Traders:
Gold is responding lightly to macroeconomic factors but hasn’t established a strong trend. This is a period prone to market noise—Gold may jump up and down on news, but the momentum required to establish a consistent trend is lacking.
Traders should monitor USD movements and US labor data closely this week, especially the NFP report, as this could provide more clarity for Gold’s future direction.
✍️ Conclusion:
Gold is recovering from its lows, but it remains uncertain.
The Buy side hopes for rate cuts by the Fed.
The Sell side is betting on USD strength.
As for us traders, let’s stay patient, observe closely, and be ready for the next move. The big wave may still be coming, but smaller price actions right now could give us clues for the upcoming trend.
🔶 Key Levels & Strategy:
Current Support Zone: Gold is holding above the critical psychological support levels of 3300-3304. If the upward momentum continues, a move towards 335x-337x is highly possible in the near term.
Liquidity Gap: Currently, there’s a liquidity gap at the higher levels. The goal is for Gold to rise further to fill this gap before any deeper retracement occurs.
📈 Trading Plan:
BUY ZONE: 3303 – 3301
‼️ SL: 3297
✔️ TP: 3306 → 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → ???
SELL ZONE: 3358 – 3360
‼️ SL: 3364
✔️ TP: 3354 → 3350 → 3345 → 3340 → 3320
⚡ Final Thoughts:
As the market awaits further data, keep an eye on these key support and resistance levels for your trading setups.
The overall trend is still upward, but short-term volatility is expected. Make sure to follow your risk management strategies.
Trading Analysis for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (15-Minute Chart)
Based on the provided 15-minute chart for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD), published by NaviPips on TradingView.com on June 30, 2025, at 17:53 UTC, here’s a suggested trading setup for a buy position:
Current Price and Trend: The current price is 3,241.875, with a slight increase of +0.250 (+0.01%). The chart shows a recent downtrend that appears to be stabilizing near the current level, suggesting a potential reversal point.
Buy Entry: Enter a buy position at 3,312.875 (current price), as it aligns with a support zone where the price has found a base, indicated by the horizontal dashed line and recent consolidation.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 3,295.250, below the recent low, to protect against further downside. This level is approximately 10.625 points below the entry, defining the risk.
Take Profit Levels:
Take Profit 1: 3,317.875, a conservative target about 20.000 points above the entry, aligning with a minor resistance zone.
Take Profit 2: 3,324.750, a mid-range target approximately 31.875 points above the entry.
Take Profit 3: 3,332.500, a deeper target about 45.625 points above the entry, indicating a potential trend reversal.
Price Action: The chart indicates a downtrend with a possible bottoming pattern near the current level. The support zone and upward candlestick suggest a buy opportunity if the price holds.
Risk-Reward Ratio: The distance to the stop loss (10.625 points) compared to the take profit levels (20.000 to 45.625 points) offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, ranging from approximately 1:1.9 to 1:4.3.
Conclusion
Enter a buy at 3,241.875, with a stop loss at 3,295.250 and take profit levels at 3,317.875, 3,324.750, and 3,332.500. Monitor the price action for confirmation of an upward move, and be cautious of a potential continued downtrend if the price breaks below the stop loss level. (Note: I assume "take profot" was a typo for "take profit" and have corrected it accordingly.)